International Labour Office • Geneva
Working on a warmer planet
The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work
Table of contents
Preface
Acknowledgements
Executive summary
1. Heat stress and decent work
2. Global overview
2.1 Climate change and the rising incidence of heat stress
2.2 Labour market trends and exposure to heat stress
2.3 Methodology
2.4 Heat stress and its effect on labour productivity
2.5 Urban heat islands
2.6 Vulnerability of disadvantaged workers and subregions
3. Africa
3.1 Current and projected heat levels
3.2 Labour market trends
3.3 Subregional and national estimates
3.4 Conclusion and key findings
4. Americas
4.1 Current and projected heat levels
4.2 Labour market trends
4.3 Subregional and national estimates
4.4 Conclusion and key findings
5. Arab States
5.1 Current and projected heat levels
5.2 Labour market trends
5.3 Regional and national estimates
5.4 Conclusion and key findings
6. Asia and the Pacific
6.1 Current and projected heat levels
6.2 Labour market trends
6.3 Subregional and national estimates
6.4 Conclusion and key findings
7. Europe and Central Asia
7.1 Current and projected heat levels
7.2 Labour market trends
7.3 Subregional and national estimates
7.4 Conclusion and key findings
8. Employment and labour market policies Part I. Adapting to heat-related hazards through international labour standards and tripartism
8.1 The role of international labour standards
8.2 The role of governments
8.3 The role of employers
8.4 The role of workers
8.5 The role of social dialogue
9. Employment and labour market policies Part II. Complementary mitigation efforts to reduce heat-related hazards
9.1 Mitigation pathways and occupational heat stress
9.2 Long-term projections of the impact of heat stress
9.3 Employment opportunities resulting from mitigation efforts
Conclusion
Appendix I. Detailed methodology
Appendix II. Comparison of in-shade and in-sun estimates
Bibliography
Boxes
3.1 Heat stress and vulnerable outdoor workers in the city of Bulawayo in Zimbabwe
4.1 Vulnerability to heat exposure among farm workers in North America
4.2 Heat stress, poor working conditions and health impacts among workers on Central American sugar cane plantations
5.1 Heat-related risks and occupational safety and health measures in the GCC countries
6.1 Occupational heat stress and brickmaking workers in India
6.2 The impact of outdoor occupational heat stress in the Islamic Republic of Iran
6.3 Extreme heat and migration in Pakistan
6.4 Low-income outdoor workers and heat stress risks in Da Nang, Viet Nam
6.5 The impact of climate change on the labour market in Thailand
7.1 Ambient temperature, heatwaves and occupational injuries in Europe and Central Asia
8.1 Heat stress as a driver of migration: Implications for policy action
8.2 Adapting to heat stress in the agricultural sector
Figures
2.1 Estimated incidence of heat stress worldwide in 1995
2.2 Projected incidence of heat stress worldwide in 2085
2.3 Sectoral composition of total employment by subregion, 1995 and projections for 2030 (percentages)
2.4 Equivalent full-time jobs and GDP lost to heat stress, global and by country income group, 1995 and projections for 2030
2.5 Working hours lost to heat stress by subregion, 1995 and projections for 2030 (percentages)
2.6 Working hours lost to heat stress by sector, 1995 and projections for 2030 (percentages)
2.7 Correlation between estimated labour productivity loss due to heat stress and urbanization, 183 countries from all world subregions, 1995 (percentages)
2.8 Correlation between labour productivity loss due to heat stress and share of (A) own-account and contributing family workers; and (B) working poverty, all world subregions, 2015
2.9 Correlation between labour productivity loss due to heat stress, 2015 and (A) informality; and (B) social security coverage, selected countries, latest available year
2.10 Correlation between GHG emissions and labour productivity loss due to heat stress, all world subregions, 2012 and 2015
3.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.2 Breakdown of total employment in Africa, by sector and subregion, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in the Americas, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.2 Breakdown of total employment in the Americas, by sector and subregion, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in the Americas, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
5.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in the Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
5.2 Breakdown of total employment by sector, Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
5.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries/territories, Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.2 Breakdown of total employment by sector, Asia-Pacific subregions, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in Europe and Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.2 Breakdown of total employment by sector, Europe and Central Asia subregions, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in Europe and Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
8.1 The role of governments, employers and workers in reducing vulnerability to heat stress and promoting adaptation
8.2 Correlation between net migration and labour productivity loss
9.1 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 climate change scenarios, Ghana, Cambodia, Panama, Qatar and Spain, 1995–2085 (projections)
AI.1 Estimated exposure–response relationships for reduced hourly work capacity in jobs with a physical intensity of 200 W, 300 W and 400 W
AII.1 Percentages of global working hours lost to heat stress, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
AII.2 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress calculated using in-sun and in-shade estimates of heat stress, all subregions, 2030 (projections)
AII.3 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress, Cambodia, Ghana, Chad and India, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
Tables
1.1 Heat stress impacts on work in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals
2.1 Annual average temperature in world subregions in 1995 and projected increases by 2025 and 2085 (°C)
2.2 Summary of data sources and models used, and of analytical steps performed
3.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Northern Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Central Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Eastern Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.4 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Southern Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
3.5 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Western Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, North America, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Central America, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, South America, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
4.4 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Caribbean, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
5.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Eastern Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Southern Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, South-East Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
6.4 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Pacific Islands, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Eastern Europe, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Southern Europe, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
7.4 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Western Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections)
Copyright © International Labour Organization 2019
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